“Among the advantages of the mobile channel is the impetus provided by the continued and unparalleled growth of the mobile communications market,” said Bruce Gibson, director of research for Juniper Research.
Subscriber Growth
Juniper’s forecasts factor in a number of potential drivers and constraints. The biggest factor is the growth of the mobile phone company subscriber base in Asia-Pacific, which is forecast to exceed 1.3 billion users by 2011, and, over the next five years, is expected to account for more than 40 per cent of total global subscribers.
Gibson said that during the next four years, the Asia-Pacific region will be the largest geographic market for mobile gambling, followed by Europe, with North America, South America and rest of the world a “considerable way” behind, said Gibson.
The Asia-Pacific region and Europe will contribute similar revenues, with Europe seeing a substantial rise in total revenues from $950 million in 2006 to $ 7.9 billion by 2011, said Gibson.
By comparison, Canada, and even the U.S., will rise from zero revenue to a combined total of $3.3 billion by 2011, said Gibson. Meantime, South America will grow from $64 million today in mobile gaming revenues to $1.33 billion by 2011, said Gibson.
Many Factors
Gibson said that the cellular phone market's growth is just one factor, of many, in the expected evolution of mobile phone gambling. There is the desire to gamble in many sectors of the global population, as well as the increased speed of mobile networks, and the production of new, mobile handset technology.
“However the mobile gambling market is perhaps as its nature suggests, difficult to predict,” said Gibson. “Figures for the adoption of mobile gambling services and ultimately revenue could substantially increase on current forecasts, if more liberal gambling environments are introduced in key regions in the near future.”
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A new survey, released last month, by the Munich-based consulting company, MECN, indicates that the recent woes impacting the online gambling industry – the high-profile arrest and indictment of the CEO of BetOnSports.com and threatened Congressional legislation in the U.S. -- are probably going to be short-to-medium-term threats, not long-term woes.
Martin Oelbermann, an analyst with MECN, said his firm surveyed close to 100 gambling experts from around the globe for his report.
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