The difference between a -1.20 and -1.30 moneyline every game can mean hundreds of dollars over the course of a 162-game season.
2) When the moneyline goes above -2.00, consider playing the run-line (-1.5 runs) on favorites or pick another team to bet on. Do your homework, however, before betting on the run-line, carefully analyzing the pitcher and his past history against the opposing batters. Also check your team's recent run production and margin of victory history. Some teams live and die by 1-run games, while other clubs habitually play comparatively few 1-run games.
3) Don't be afraid to switch teams in mid-season. You can begin a new Series any time a team wins or loses a game, depending on whether you're banking on them going on a winning or losing streak. By following the entire league closely, you can catch so-so teams on a hot streak, like the Red Sox opening the 2002 season or the Royals opening the 2003 season.
4) End your Series early if you wish. For instance, if you've won 2 games in a row with a team and the moneyline odds jump to -2.80 on the next game and you don't like its chances of winning by 2 runs (so you don't want to bet the run-line of -1.5), don't throw away $70 trying to win $25 on the moneyline.
5) If you feel very strongly about your team's chances, consider making your Series 50-50-75 instead of 50-50-25. Do some homework on your teams and determine their current record when going for their fifth win in a row (which would be 4 consecutive wins in the System).
6) Although I don't implement it in the System's Rules or the Yankees example above, this Program benefits by adding any additional losses above and beyond 11-10 odds to the payout of what would be your next Series Amount.
In other words, when you lose a moneyline wager, add the difference between what you had to lay on the favorite to what you would have had to lay with traditional 11-10 odds (at Yankees -120, that's $120 to win $100, instead of $110 to win $100, so you would add $10 to your next payout).
7) Don't forget to also add any money paid to a professional handicapper for his picks to your Series Amounts. Keep in mind that if you pay $25 for 5 picks, you must add only $5 to each Series Amount, assuming you run 5 Series that day. In other words, divide the handicapper's fee among the total number of picks you play that day.
8) If your Bankroll permits, you may want to run several Series simultaneously.
9) Consider combining The Baseball Streaks System with the parlay version of The Monthly Income System, which you'll learn about in Chapter 15.
10) As always, keep strict track of your bets using copies of the Chart provided at the end of this chapter.
Crunching the Numbers
Again, with winners you're looking for a team that wins about 60% of its games but doesn't face moneylines of -2.00 or more too often. With losers, you're seeking out teams that win no more than 40% of the time and don't get moneylines of +2.00 a lot.Needless to say, it would have been much more profitable to bet on the Braves or A's in 2002 than on the Yankees, who had an astounding 85 of their 166 regular and postseason games (or 51%) in 2002 with moneyline odds of -2.00 or worse.
By contrast, only 37 of the A's 167 games (or 22%) and only 29 of the Braves' 167 games (or 17%) had moneyline odds of -2.00 or worse in 2002. So you can see how the perception of the odds is so much different than the reality of 3 teams with virtually identical records.
During 2002, the Braves went on win streaks of 3 or more games 17 times and the A's accomplished the same thing 16 times. There's no way these kind of streaks (and the teams' attractive odds) could result in anything but even bigger profits for you when using The Baseball Streaks System than the Yankees showed in the example above.
It's important to note that it takes the oddsmakers a while to "catch on" that a team's a winner. Consider that only 3 of the Braves' first 81 games in 2002 came with a moneyline at -2.00 or higher. Likewise, you would have had to lay $2 or more to win $1 on only 3 A's games before the All-Star Break in 2002.
For this reason, you'll want to seriously consider switching teams in the second half of the season, perhaps more than once, since first-place teams will be risky investments. Instead, look to cash in on No. 2 or No. 3 teams going on streaks, either hot or cold.
How hard do the oddsmakers make it on favorites in baseball's second half? Consider that over the last 23 regular-season games in 2002 the moneyline odds on the Yankees fluctuated between a whopping -2.40 and a stratospheric -4.00. Despite the fact that the Yankees went a red-hot 17-6 (or .739) to finish the year, you would have lost $182 using even this powerful System, which allows you to sit out losing streaks.
The moral, of course, is to run like Alfonso Soriano in the opposite direction of ludicrous moneyline odds in baseball (or hockey).
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Summing It All Up
The Baseball Streaks System is a unique way to bet on teams when they're winning and sit and watch while they're losing. The key is to find teams that win often (60% of the time) and yet don't come with big moneylines (-2.00 or higher) more than 1 game in 5.Conversely, you can bet against bad teams, banking that they'll lose. Again, just make sure they seldom win (40% of the time or less) and that their moneylines aren't worse than +2.00 more than 1 game in 5.
Because oddsmakers make it tough during the second half of the season, don't hesitate to jump from one team to the next in search of 3 consecutive wins or losses, as attractive odds make themselves available to the right teams.
Here's a quick overview of The Baseball Streaks System:
1) To start this Series, wait until your selected "winning" team wins a game and then make a moneyline wager in the amount necessary to earn you the predetermined Series Amount of $50 (or an Actual Wager Amount) on its next game.
2) If your team wins, add your winnings to your Bankroll and make another bet on its next game, again in an amount enough to win the Series Amount of $50.
3) If you lose your first wager, cut your losses and start over the Series, going back to Rule 1, waiting for another Signal Result.
4) Continue betting as your team wins (or loses, if you're betting on a "loser"), setting your Actual Wager Amounts according to the moneyline, until you win 3 wagers in a row (and your team wins 4 games in a row overall). Add your profits to your Bankroll and start over on a new Series.
5) Every month or so, evaluate your Personal Betting Bankroll, and increase your 4 Betting Blocks if you feel comfortable doing so.
Tony Stoffo's website is: www.learnhowtobet.com
© Copyright 2007 Online Casino Crawler This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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