Profit Report 2007 Part 1
...should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.
A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be 7 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.
Here are the 7 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:
Arizona - Ken Whisenhunt
Atlanta - Bobby Petrino
Dallas - Wade Phillips
Miami - Cam Cameron
Oakland - Lane Kiffin
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin
San Diego - Norv Turner
Arizona – With Dennis Green now gone Ken Whisenhunt takes over as the new head coach of the Cardinals. For the past 3 seasons Whisenhunt has been the offensive coordinator of the Steelers. For this upcoming preseason I would definitely make the Cardinals a team to play on as they have gone 11-5 against the spread the last 4 years, and have a new coach that wants to impress immediately.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Leinatt, Kurt Warner, Shane Boyd
Atlanta – The offensive minded Bobby Petrino of Louisville has been named the new head coach of the Falcons. However Atlanta has retained both their offensive and defensive coordinators from a year ago. So a very strong preseason trend should continue to show a profit for this year. In their 'dress rehearsal' game the last three years the Falcons have gone 3-0 outscoring their opposition 80-23 This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on August 27th when they play Cincinnati at home,
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Michael Vick, Joey Harrington, D.J. Shockley, Chris Redman
Baltimore – The Ravens under head coach Brian Billick are just a .500 team ATS over the past four preseasons (10-10). However, there is a very strong trend that can make you some money on the Ravens this preseason. Baltimore in the past two preseasons has seen the under go 6-2. Plus in week # 3 when the regulars play the under has gone 3-1 the past 4 years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Steve McNair, Kyle Boller, Drew Olsen, Troy Smith
Buffalo – The Bills lost 3 of their 4 preseason games last year under new head coach Dick Jauron. This follows a trend that in Jauron’s last two preseasons when he was head coach of the Chicago Bears back in 2002 and 2003, he went 2-6 ATS. Buffalo also hired Marv Levy last year as its vice president of football operations. Remember Levy coached all those great Buffalo teams that went to the Super Bowl. But Levy never cared about winning in the preseason. Under this new leadership will have to make the Bills a definite fade again this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: J.P. Losman, Craig Nall, Trent Edwards.
Carolina – The Panthers played it close to the vest last year with all 4 of their preseason games going under the total. With Carolina having to play the Giants, Eagles, Patriots, and Steelers this year look for this trend of low scoring games to continue this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jake Delhomme, David Carr, Brett Basanez.
Chicago – In Lovie Smith’s three seasons as Chicago head coach the Bears are just a .500 team against the spread. However a trend has definitely developed in the preseason in the 13 games the Bears have played, nine of them have stayed 'under' the total. A possible 'under' play this preseason is on August 30th when the Bears play Cleveland on the road. The Browns have seen the 'under' go 4-0 in their last preseason game of the year the past 4 years which 3 of these were against the Bears.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Rex Grossman, Brian Griese, Kyle Orton, Chris Leak.
Cincinnati – Some early preseason trends to follow for the Bengals this year. Cincinnati really doesn’t care about their opening preseason game going 1-3 the last 4 years. However the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 against the spread the last 4 years in game 2 of the preseason. This year’s game #2 opponent is a Saints team coached by Sean Payton who has shown that winning preseason games is not one of his top priorities.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Carson Palmer, Doug Johnson, Jeff Smith, Jeff Rowe.
Cleveland – It should be noted that Romeo Crennel brought over New England’s winning ways with the Browns, going 6-2 against the spread in his first two preseasons with the Browns. With a nice 07 draft look for these winning ways to continue for the Browns this preseason with a coach that’s under a lot of pressure to win this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Charlie Frye, Ken Dorsey, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn
Dallas – Wade Phillips takes over as the Cowboys new head coach. Phillips is the perfect fit to take over Bill Parcells 3-4 defense as he has been the Chargers defensive coordinator the past 3 seasons. So I look for the Cowboys to be concentrating on defense this preseason which will lead to a bunch of low scoring games this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tony Romo, Brad Johnson, Matt Baker, Richard Bartel
Denver – Head coach Mike Shanahan loves to win preseason games. In the last five years, the Broncos have gone 13-8 against the spread. Shanahan also puts a great emphasize on the Broncos final preseason game, going 6-1 against the spread the last seven years making this one of the Best preseason plays that you will find.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jay Cutler, Patrick Ramsey, Preston Parsons, Darrell Hackney
Detroit – Last year I told you that that the Lions head coach Marinelli has been the defensive line and assistant head coach for Tampa Bay the past 10 years. He helped put together the awesome Buccaneers defensive units of the past. With him emphasizing defense and toughness, playing Detroit 'under' this preseason might be the way to go. Well the Lions saw the under go 3-1 in their preseason games last year. I see no reason why this trend won’t continue this preseason making the under a strong play for this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, and Drew Stanton
Green Bay – In his first year as head coach of the Packers Mike McCarthy showed no signs of being interested in winning preseason games as Green Bay went 1-3 against the spread last year. The Packers have also been blown out in their last 2 dress rehearsal game being outscored 75-20. With a very poor quarterback rotation in place for this year look for the Green Bay preseason woes to continue this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Brett Favre, Aaron Rogers, Ingle Martin, Paul Thompson
Houston – Gary Kubiak brought the Denver preseason winning ways to Houston last year as the Texans went 3-0-1 against the spread last year in his first year as head coach. With a very solid quarterback rotation in place I look for the Texans to again be a winning proposition this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels, Bradlee Van Pelt, Jared Zabransky
Indianapolis – Two late preseason trends to watch this year for the Colts. Over the past 5 years Indianapolis has been a money maker in their dress rehearsal game going 4-1 against the spread (this year’s dress rehearsal game is on August 25th against Detroit). While just as impressive is how poorly they play in their last preseason game of the year going 1-4 against the spread. Look for both of these solid trends to continue this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi, Josh Betts, and John Navarre.
Jacksonville – The Jaguars are sure known for their defense in the regular season. However head coach Jack Del Rio has pulled in the reigns during the last 2 preseasons allowing the Jaguars to open things up offensively as the over has gone 6-2. Look for this trend to again be a money maker this year as the odds makers continue to post low totals on all of the Jacksonville preseason games.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Byron Leftwich, David Garrard, Quinn Gray.
Kansas City – One strong early trend to watch this preseason for Kansas City. The Chiefs definitely don’t look forward to playing their first preseason game of the year going 0-4 against the spread the last 4 years. Look for this trend to continue this year as the Chiefs open up on the road against a Browns team that has excelled against the spread since Romeo Crennel has taken over as head coach.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Damon Huard, Brodie Croyle, Casey Printers, Jeff Terrell
Part 2 of this Preseason Profit Report will discuss the remaining NFL teams.
Tony Stoffo's website is: www.learnhowtobet.com
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